United States

Sub-seasonal forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time scale. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value in such areas as agricultural productivity, water resource management, and emergency planning for extreme weather events. However, SSF is considered more challenging than either weather prediction or even seasonal prediction, and is still a largely understudied problem. In this paper, we carefully investigate 10 Machine Learning (ML) approaches to sub-seasonal temperature forecasting over the contiguous U.S. on the SSF dataset we collect, including a variety of climate variables from the atmosphere, ocean, and land. Because of the complicated atmosphere-land-ocean couplings and the limited amount of good quality observational data, SSF imposes a great challenge for ML despite the recent advances in various domains. Our results indicate that suitable ML models, e.g., XGBoost, to some extent, capture the predictability on sub-seasonal time scales and can outperform the climatological baselines, while Deep Learning (DL) models barely manage to match the best results with carefully designed architecture. Besides, our analysis and exploration provide insights on important aspects to improve the quality of sub-seasonal forecasts, e.g., feature representation and model architecture. The SSF dataset and code are released with this paper for use by the broader research community.

AAAI 2021

Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting via Machine Learning: Challenges, Analysis, and Advances

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

AAAI 2022

technical paper

Recently, deep models have shown tremendous improvements in neural machine translation (NMT). However, systems of this kind are computationally expensive and memory intensive. In this paper, we take a natural step towards learning strong but light-weight NMT systems. We proposed a novel group-permutation based knowledge distillation approach to compressing the deep Transformer model into a shallow model. The experimental results on several benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our method. Our compressed model is 8 times shallower than the deep model, with almost no loss in BLEU. To further enhance the teacher model, we present a Skipping Sub-Layer method to randomly omit sub-layers to introduce perturbation into training, which achieves a BLEU score of 30.63 on English-German newstest2014. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/libeineu/GPKD.

Learning Light-Weight Translation Models from Deep Transformer

One key element behind the recent progress of machine learning has been the ability to train machine learning models in large-scale distributed shared-memory and message-passing environments. Most of these models are trained  employing variants of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based optimization, but most methods involve some type of consistency relaxation relative to sequential SGD, to mitigate its large communication or synchronization costs at scale. 
In this paper, we introduce a general consistency condition covering communication-reduced and asynchronous distributed SGD implementations. 
Our framework, called elastic consistency, decouples the system-specific aspects of the implementation from the SGD convergence requirements, giving a general way to obtain convergence bounds for a wide variety of distributed SGD methods used in practice. Elastic consistency can be used to re-derive or improve several previous convergence bounds in message-passing and shared-memory settings, but also to analyze new models and distribution schemes. As a direct application, we propose and analyze a new synchronization-avoiding scheduling scheme for distributed SGD, and show that it can be used to efficiently train deep convolutional models for image classification.

Elastic Consistency: A Practical Consistency Model for Distributed Stochastic Gradient Descent

We explore unconstrained natural language feedback as a learning signal for artificial agents. Humans use rich and varied language to teach, yet most prior work on interactive learning from language assumes a particular form of input (e.g., commands). We propose a general framework which does not make this assumption, instead using aspect-based sentiment analysis to decompose feedback into sentiment over the features of a Markov decision process. We then infer the teacher's reward function by regressing the sentiment on the features, an analogue of inverse reinforcement learning. To evaluate our approach, we first collect a corpus of teaching behavior in a cooperative task where both teacher and learner are human. We implement three artificial learners: sentiment-based "literal" and "pragmatic" models, and an inference network trained end-to-end to predict rewards. We then re-run our initial experiment, pairing human teachers with these artificial learners. All three models successfully learn from interactive human feedback. The inference network approaches the performance of the "literal" sentiment model, while the "pragmatic" model nears human performance. Our work provides insight into the information structure of naturalistic linguistic feedback as well as methods to leverage it for reinforcement learning.

Learning Rewards from Linguistic Feedback

Forecasting of multivariate time-series is an important problem that has applications in traffic management, cellular network configuration, and quantitative finance. A special case of the problem arises when there is a graph available that captures the relationships between the time-series. In this paper we propose a novel learning architecture that achieves performance competitive with or better than the best existing algorithms, without requiring knowledge of the graph. The key element of our proposed architecture is the learnable fully connected hard graph gating mechanism that enables the use of the state-of-the-art and highly computationally efficient fully connected time-series forecasting architecture in traffic forecasting applications. Experimental results for two public traffic network datasets illustrate the value of our approach, and ablation studies confirm the importance of each element of the architecture. The code is available here: https://github.com/boreshkinai/fc-gaga.

FC-GAGA: Fully Connected Gated Graph Architecture for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Forecasting

We study combinatorial, parallelizable algorithms for maximization of a submodular function, not necessarily monotone, with respect to a cardinality constraint k. We improve the best approximation factor achieved by an algorithm that has optimal adaptivity and query complexity, up to logarithmic factors in the size of the ground set, from 0.039 to nearly 0.193. Heuristic versions of our algorithms are empirically validated to use a low number of adaptive rounds and total queries while obtaining solutions with high objective value in comparison with state-of-the-art approximation algorithms, including continuous algorithms that use the multilinear extension.

Nearly Linear-Time, Parallelizable Algorithms for Non-Monotone Submodular Maximization

Transformer-based architectures brought a breeze of change to Word Sense Disambiguation (WSD), improving models' performances by a large margin.
The fast development of new approaches has been further encouraged by a well-framed evaluation suite for English, which has allowed their performances to be kept track of and compared fairly.
However, other languages have remained largely unexplored, as testing data are available for a few languages only and the evaluation setting is rather matted.
In this paper, we untangle this situation by proposing XL-WSD, a cross-lingual evaluation benchmark for the WSD task featuring sense-annotated development and test sets in 18 languages from six different linguistic families, together with language-specific silver training data.
We leverage XL-WSD datasets to conduct an extensive evaluation of neural and knowledge-based approaches, including the most recent multilingual language models. 
Results show that the zero-shot knowledge transfer across languages is a promising research direction within the WSD field, especially when considering low-resourced languages where large pre-trained multilingual models still perform poorly. 
We make the evaluation suite and the code for performing the experiments available at https://sapienzanlp.github.io/xl-wsd/.

XL-WSD: An Extra-Large and Cross-Lingual Evaluation Framework for Word Sense Disambiguation

While widely used in industry,  recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are known to have deficiencies in dealing with long sequences (e.g. slow inference, vanishing gradients etc.). Recent research has attempted to accelerate RNN models by developing mechanisms to skip irrelevant words in input. Due to the lack of labelled data, it remains as a challenge to decide which words to skip, especially for low-resource classification tasks. In this paper, we propose Knowledge-AwareLeap-LSTM (KALL), a novel architecture which integrates prior human knowledge (created either manually or automatically)  like in-domain keywords,  terminologies or lexicons into Leap-LSTM to partially supervise the skipping process. More specifically,  we propose a knowledge-oriented cost function for KALL; furthermore, we propose two strategies to integrate the knowledge: (1) the Factored KALL approach involves a keyword indicator as a soft constraint for the skip-ping process, and (2) the Gated KALL enforces the inclusion of keywords while maintaining a differentiable network in training. Experiments on different public datasets show that our approaches are1.1x~2.6x faster than LSTM with better accuracy and 23.6x faster than XLNet in a resource-limited CPU-only environment.

Knowledge-Aware Leap-LSTM: Integrating Prior Knowledge into Leap-LSTM towards Faster Long Text Classification

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

Meta-Learning Framework with Applications to Zero-Shot Time-Series Forecasting

In this paper we revisit the idea of pseudo-labeling in the context of semi-supervised learning where a learning algorithm has access to a small set of labeled samples and a large set of unlabeled samples. Pseudo-labeling works by applying pseudo-labels to samples in the unlabeled set by using a model trained on combination of the labeled samples and any previously pseudo-labeled samples, and iteratively repeating this process in a self-training cycle. Current methods seem to have abandoned this approach in favor of consistency regularization methods that train models under a combination of different styles of self-supervised losses on the unlabeled samples and standard supervised losses on the labeled samples. We empirically demonstrate that pseudo-labeling can in fact be competitive with the state-of-the-art, while being more resilient to out-of-distribution samples in the unlabeled set. We identify two key factors that allow pseudo-labeling to achieve such remarkable results (1) applying curriculum learning principles and (2) avoiding concept drift by restarting model parameters before each self-training cycle. We obtain 94.91% accuracy on CIFAR-10 using only 4,000 labeled samples, and 68.87% top-1 accuracy on Imagenet-ILSVRC using only 10% of the labeled samples.

Curriculum Labeling: Revisiting Pseudo-Labeling for Semi-Supervised Learning

Argument structure elaborates the relation among claims and premises. 
Previous works in persuasiveness prediction do not consider this relation in their architectures. 
To take argument structure information into account, this paper proposes an approach to persuasiveness prediction with a novel graph-based neural network model, called heterogeneous argument attention network (HARGAN).
By jointly training on the persuasiveness and stance of the replies, our model achieves the state-of-the-art performance on the ChangeMyView (CMV) dataset for the persuasiveness prediction task.
Experimental results show that the graph setting enables our model to aggregate information across multiple paragraphs effectively.
In the meanwhile, our stance prediction auxiliary task enables our model to identify the viewpoint of each party, and helps our model perform better on the persuasiveness prediction.

Downloads

Next from AAAI 2021

Learning Light-Weight Translation Models from Deep Transformer

Similar lecture

Learning and Dynamical Models for Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting: Comparison and Collaboration

.css-70qvj9{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;}Downloads

Next from AAAI 2021

Learning Light-Weight Translation Models from Deep Transformer

Similar lecture

Learning and Dynamical Models for Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting: Comparison and Collaboration

Downloads