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Neural ordinary differential equations (NODE) have been proposed as a continuous depth generalization to popular deep learning models such as Residual networks (ResNets). They provide parameter efficiency and automate the model selection process in deep learning models to some extent. However, they lack the much-required uncertainty modelling and robustness capabilities which are crucial for their use in several real-world applications such as autonomous driving and healthcare. We propose a novel and unique approach to model uncertainty in NODE by considering a distribution over the end-time T of the ODE solver. The proposed approach, latent time NODE (LT-NODE), treats T as a latent variable and apply Bayesian learning to obtain a posterior distribution over T from the data. In particular, we use variational inference to learn an approximate posterior and the model parameters. Prediction is done by considering the NODE representations from different samples of the posterior and can be done efficiently using a single forward pass. As T implicitly defines the depth of a NODE, posterior distribution over T would also help in model selection in NODE. We also propose, adaptive latent time NODE (ALT-NODE), which allow each data point to have a distinct posterior distribution over end-times. ALT-NODE uses amortized variational inference to learn an approximate posterior using inference networks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches in modelling uncertainty and robustness through experiments on synthetic and several real-world image classification data.

AAAI 2022

Latent Time Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.<br><br><br><br>

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

AAAI 2024

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

We introduce three new generative models for time series that are based on Euler discretization of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) and Wasserstein metrics. Two of these methods rely on the adaptation of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to time series. The third algorithm, called Conditional Euler Generator (CEGEN), minimizes a dedicated distance between the transition probability distributions over all time steps. In the context of ItÃ´ processes, we provide theoretical guarantees that minimizing this criterion implies accurate estimations of the drift and volatility parameters. Empirically, CEGEN outperforms state-of-the-art and GANs on both marginal and temporal dynamic metrics. Besides, correlation structures are accurately identified in high dimension. When few real data points are available, we verify the effectiveness of CEGEN when combined with transfer learning methods on model-based simulations. Finally, we illustrate the robustness of our methods on various real-world data sets.

Conditional Loss and Deep Euler Scheme for Time Series Generation

Off-policy sampling and experience replay are key for improving sample efficiency and scaling model-free temporal difference learning methods. When combined with function approximation, such as neural networks, this combination is known as the deadly triad and is potentially unstable. Recently, it has been shown that stability and good performance at scale can be achieved by combining emphatic weightings and multi-step updates. This approach, however, is generally limited to sampling complete trajectories in order, to compute the required emphatic weighting. In this paper we investigate how to combine emphatic weightings with non-sequential, off-line data sampled from a replay buffer. We develop a multi-step emphatic weighting that can be combined with replay, and a time-reversed n-step TD learning algorithm to learn the required emphatic weighting. We show that these state weightings reduce variance compared with prior approaches, while providing convergence guarantees. We tested the approach at scale on Atari 2600 video games, and observed that the new X-ETD(n) agent improved over baseline agents, highlighting both the scalability and broad applicability of our approach.

Learning Expected Emphatic Traces for Deep RL

When aggregating logically interconnected judgements from n agents, the result might be logically inconsistent. This phenomenon is known as the doctrinal paradox, which plays a central role in the field of judgement aggregation. Previous work has mostly focused on the worst-case analysis of the doctrinal paradox, leading to many impossibility results. Little is known about its likelihood of occurrence in practical settings,  except for the study under certain distributions by List in 2005. In this paper, we characterize the likelihood of the doctrinal paradox under a  general and realistic model called semi-random social choice framework (proposed by Xia in 2020). In the framework, agents' ground truth judgements can be arbitrarily correlated, while the noises are independent.  Our main theorem states that under mild conditions, the semi-random likelihood of the doctrinal paradox is either 0, exp(-Î˜(n)), Î˜(n\^~(-0.5)) or Î˜(1). This not only answers open questions by List in 2005, but also draws clear lines between situations with frequent paradoxes and with vanishing paradoxes.

The Semi-Random Likelihood of Doctrinal Paradoxes

Models in the supervised learning framework may capture rich and complex representations over the features that are hard for humans to interpret. Existing methods to explain such models are often specific to architectures and data where the features do not have a time-varying component. In this work, we propose TIME, a method to explain models that are inherently temporal in nature. Our approach (i) uses a model-agnostic permutation-based approach to analyze global feature importance, (ii) identifies the importance of salient features with respect to their temporal ordering as well as localized windows of influence, and (iii) uses hypothesis testing to provide statistical rigor.

Feature Importance Explanations for Temporal Black-Box Models

The majority of popular graph kernels is based on the concept of Haussler's R-convolution kernel and defines graph similarities in terms of mutual substructures. 
In this work, we enrich these similarity measures by considering graph filtrations:
Using meaningful orders on the set of edges, which allow to construct a sequence of nested graphs, we can consider a graph at multiple granularities. 
A key concept of our approach is to track graph features over the course of such graph resolutions. 
Rather than to simply compare frequencies of features in graphs, this allows for their comparison in terms of when and for how long they exist in the sequences. 
In this work, we propose a family of graph kernels that incorporate these existence intervals of features. 
While our approach can be applied to arbitrary graph features, we particularly highlight Weisfeiler-Lehman vertex labels, leading to efficient kernels. 
We show that using Weisfeiler-Lehman labels over certain filtrations strictly increases the expressive power over the ordinary Weisfeiler-Lehman procedure in terms of deciding graph isomorphism.
In fact, this result directly yields more powerful graph kernels based on such features and has implications to graph neural networks due to their close relationship to the Weisfeiler-Lehman method.
We empirically validate the expressive power of our graph kernels and show significant improvements over state-of-the-art graph kernels in terms of predictive performance on various real-world benchmark datasets.

Graph Filtration Kernels

Hierarchical SGD (H-SGD) has emerged as a new distributed SGD algorithm for multi-level communication networks. In H-SGD, before each global aggregation, workers send their updated local models to local servers for aggregations. Despite recent research efforts, the effect of local aggregation on global convergence still lacks theoretical understanding. In this work, we first introduce a new notion of "upward" and "downward" divergences. We then use it to conduct a novel analysis to obtain a worst-case convergence upper bound for two-level H-SGD with non-IID data, non-convex objective function, and stochastic gradient. By extending this result to the case with random grouping, we observe that this convergence upper bound of H-SGD is between the upper bounds of two single-level local SGD settings, with the number of local iterations equal to the local and global update periods in H-SGD, respectively. We refer to this as the "sandwich behavior". Furthermore, we extend our analytical approach based on "upward" and "downward" divergences to study the convergence for the general case of H-SGD with more than two levels, where the "sandwich behavior" still holds. Our theoretical results provide key insights of why local aggregation can be beneficial in improving the convergence of H-SGD.

Demystifying Why Local Aggregation Helps: Convergence Analysis of Hierarchical SGD

Policy gradient methods have been frequently applied to problems in control and reinforcement learning with great success, yet existing convergence analysis still relies on non-intuitive, impractical and often opaque conditions. In particular, existing rates are achieved in limited settings, under strict regularity conditions. In this work, we establish explicit convergence rates of policy gradient methods, extending the convergence regime to weakly smooth policy classes with L2 integrable gradient. We provide intuitive examples to illustrate the insight behind these new conditions. Notably, our analysis also shows that convergence rates are achievable for both the standard policy gradient and the natural policy gradient algorithms under these assumptions. Lastly we provide performance guarantees for the converged policies.

Convergence and Optimality of Policy Gradient Methods in Weakly Smooth Settings

We propose a new approach, the calibrated nonparametric scan statistic (CNSS), for more accurate detection of anomalous patterns in large-scale, real-world graphs. Scan statistics identify connected subgraphs that are interesting or unexpected through maximization of a likelihood ratio statistic; in particular, nonparametric scan statistics (NPSSs) identify subgraphs with a higher than expected proportion of individually significant nodes. However, we show that recently proposed NPSS methods are miscalibrated, failing to account for the maximization of the statistic over the multiplicity of subgraphs. This results in both reduced detection power for subtle signals, and low precision of the detected subgraph even for stronger signals. Thus we develop a new statistical approach to recalibrate NPSSs, correctly adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing and taking the underlying graph structure into account. While the recalibration, based on randomization testing, is computationally expensive, we propose both an efficient (approximate) algorithm and new, closed-form lower bounds (on the expected maximum proportion of significant nodes for subgraphs of a given size, under the null hypothesis of no anomalous patterns). These advances, along with the integration of recent core-tree decomposition methods, enable CNSS to scale to large real-world graphs, with substantial improvement in the accuracy of detected subgraphs. Extensive experiments on both semi-synthetic and real-world datasets are demonstrated to validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods, in comparison with state-of-the-art counterparts.

Calibrated Nonparametric Scan Statistics for Anomalous Pattern Detection in Graphs

In black-box optimization problems, we aim to maximize an unknown objective function, where the function is only accessible through feedbacks of an evaluation or simulation oracle. In real-life, the feedbacks of such oracles are often noisy and available after some unknown delay that may depend on the computation time of the oracle. Additionally, if the exact evaluations are expensive but coarse approximations are available at a lower cost, the feedbacks can have multi-fidelity. In order to address this problem, we propose a generic extension of hierarchical optimistic tree search (HOO), called ProCrastinated Tree Search (PCTS), that flexibly accommodates a delay and noise-tolerant bandit algorithm. We provide a generic proof technique to quantify regret of PCTS under delayed, noisy, and multi-fidelity feedbacks. Specifically, we derive regret bounds of PCTS enabled with delayed-UCB1 (DUCB1) and delayed-UCB-V (DUCBV) algorithms. Given a horizon T, PCTS retains the regret bound of non-delayed HOO for expected delay of O(log T), and worsens by T^((1-Î±)/(d+2)) for expected delays of O(T^(1-Î±)) for Î± âˆˆ (0,1]. We experimentally validate on multiple synthetic functions and hyperparameter tuning problems that PCTS outperforms the state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods for feedbacks with different noise levels, delays, and fidelity.

Procrastinated Tree Search: Black-Box Optimization with Delayed, Noisy, and Multi-Fidelity Feedback

Despite their popularity for graph structured data, existing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have inherent limitations for fundamental graph problems such as shortest paths, k-connectivity, minimum spanning tree and minimum cuts. In these instances, it is known that one needs GNNs of high depth, scaling at a polynomial rate with the number of nodes n, to provably encode the solution space, in turn affecting their statistical efficiency.
 
 In this work we propose a new hybrid architecture to overcome this limitation. Our proposed architecture that we call as GNNplus networks involve a combination of multiple parallel low depth GNNs along with simple pooling layers involving low depth fully connected networks. We provably demonstrate that for many graph problems, the solution space can be encoded by GNNplus networks using depth that scales only poly-logarithmically in the number of nodes. This also has statistical advantages that we demonstrate via generalization bounds for GNNplus networks. We empirically show the effectiveness of our proposed architecture for a variety of graph problems and real world classification problems.

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